Life after Mubarak - what does the future hold for Egypt?

At my local train station on my way to work each morning, a large poster greets me advertising holiday in Egypt. Promoting the ancient town of Luxor it boasts "Egypt ... where it all begins". While this current set of revolutions across the Middle East began in Tunisia, it is in the most populous Arab nation that the future of the region will be set.

Like everyone else, I've been watching the ongoing events in Egypt with a mixture of wonder and uncertainty; to see a genuine people's uprising/revolution (delete where appropriate) rock the middle east and topple a long-standing "strong man" has been genuinely awe-inspiring. The fear comes from that uncertain future that now beckons for Egypt, one full of great opportunity and hope but also a series of concerns.

Hosni Mubarak made a disastrous fumble last week when he made a big speech and then essentially said very little (other than repeating the ill-judged idea that he could somehow cling on to power until September), and ultimately failed to inspire confidence from the protestors in the street or those in the military who truly held the power behind his throne. A true revolution, sparked following the self-imolation of a young man who had lost any hope for the pursuit of his own happiness, saw the end of Mubarak's 30 year rule in an uprising after only 18 days (and one day after he'd announced earlier he would stay on until September).

Mubarak had long held himself as a war hero, particularly from his military exploits against Israel in the 70s, though he is also noted for having ensured modern peace between Egypt and Israel as well as holding a powerbase that had ensured some stability in the region. However, his long financial support from the Americans ensured that the USA was wrong-footed when it came to an uprising demanding an end to autocracy and for a new democratic future in Egypt. Obama's administration visibly stumbled in the early days of the uprising making vague statements about ensuring a smooth transition but unwilling to completely drop the man that they had long supported. The old notion of "he's a bastard, but he's our bastard" once seemed to be the overriding position, but this is now being replaced with encouraging noises about freedom and democracy.

For a long period, I had assumed that Mubarak would hold onto power using any number of ruthless tricks and so the announcement of his resignation on Friday was one that was met with a mixture of relief, surprise and unbelief; could he really be going? The Egyptian Military has largely played its cards right in this affair with many younger soldiers actively supporting the uprising, and the annoucement today of broad consultation on a new constitution and free elections in six months has been reassuring.

However, the future of the new Egypt rests with both the military and the protestors. While we have seen essentially a military coup the initial appearance is that of a holding period before a more representative government is formed. The protestors themselves form a wide base of the local demographics, crossing age and religious groupings; one of the moving images from last Sunday was when the Christian minority held a mass in Tahrir square (now the centre of this revolution) and were protected by the other protestors including both Muslim and Secular supporters.

One of the most powerful groups within the protestors is the Muslim Brotherhood, a group with a long complicated and controversial history that had been banned under Mubarak's regime. An Islamist group with political goals and methods, they have declared that they would not stand a presidential candidate in the elections announced for later this year, but for many in other parts of the region there is a fear of another 1979 Iranian revolution. They will be an important element for the future of Egypt, but they must also be keenly aware that the military will be watching to intervene if their interests are undermined.

In terms of this year's revolutions, Egypt may not be where it all began but it will have an important impact on the future of the region.