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Russia and China ignore Arab League and the West, veto UN resolution on Syrian government

2012-02-04T22:38:58Z

Today, the UN resolution on the events in Syria proposed by the Arab League and backed by the USA, France, the UK and other states was vetoed by China and Russia (whose permanent roles on the Security Council give them great clout). Its not entirely unprecedented, but its definitely highlighted a number of tensions on how the world can react to what's happening in Syria.

President El-Assad's regime represents a number of different issues, and Syria is a very divided state with a number of different ethnic, religious and political groups with their own agendas. Assad's regime is largely dominated by his own tribal grouping, and who would replace him and what would happen over the long term is very uncertain - Assad's Baathist secular government is very much at odds with Islamist groups, but we shouldn't necessarily listen to the rhetoric that if El-Assad went it would lead to such a form of government.

In terms of international reactions, the news that the Syrian government's actions have just led to the deaths of at least 55 in the city of Homs has brought the matter to international attention again. However, while the British Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that the veto "lets the Syrian people down", China dismissed the idea (cynics might like to point out that China itself is hardly averse to using military power to put down protests).

The terms of the proposed resolution were actually pretty weak and generally toothless (and its highly unlikely any group like NATO would be willing to go for military intervention, following recent wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya). As in so much of international affairs and diplomacy, all is about positioning and larger moves.

Meanwhile, closer to the ground and away from the rarified air of the United Nations Security Council, the ordinary people of Syria are suffering as their country lurches toward civil war. Would the resolution have made any difference to their situation if it passed?

Mladic refuses to enter plea at War Crimes trial

2011-06-03T16:32:59Z

Ratko Mladic, the Serbian Former General, refused to enter a plea at the international war crimes trial in The Hague this afternoon. He faces charges related to the Bosnian war from 1992-5, particularly allegations of genocide and mass-murder following events such as the massacre of 8,000 civilians in Srebrenica in 1995.

In a conflict that gave us the horrendous euphemism of "ethnic cleansing" (a phrase that overly sanitises a multitude of evils), Mladic is accused of one of the worst attrocities as part of a larger ideal of removing Bosnian Muslims from what the perpetrators believed should be Serb-only areas. The Bosnian war still has a power to haunt the minds of Europeans today as a point where the euphoria over the fall of Iron Curtain proved short-lived in the face of political turmoil and old hatreds burning what had once been Yugoslavia.

Growing up in the UK, the events in the Bosnian conflict took place when I was a child and the faces of Ratko Mladic, and others such as Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic, appeared like far distant boogeymen. Seeing the now apparently frail old man in The Hague today (far from the swaggering military man of the past) put a human face on the tragedy that I had not expected; that the man alleged to have orchestrated such terror was not some fairytale monster but a man of flesh and blood. However, this humanity does not excuse Mladic but rather serves as a warning that we must be active to prevent such horrors in the future as well as the importance of ensuring that justice be carried out.

Life after Mubarak - what does the future hold for Egypt?

2011-02-13T17:19:15Z

At my local train station on my way to work each morning, a large poster greets me advertising holiday in Egypt. Promoting the ancient town of Luxor it boasts "Egypt ... where it all begins". While this current set of revolutions across the Middle East began in Tunisia, it is in the most populous Arab nation that the future of the region will be set.

Like everyone else, I've been watching the ongoing events in Egypt with a mixture of wonder and uncertainty; to see a genuine people's uprising/revolution (delete where appropriate) rock the middle east and topple a long-standing "strong man" has been genuinely awe-inspiring. The fear comes from that uncertain future that now beckons for Egypt, one full of great opportunity and hope but also a series of concerns.

Hosni Mubarak made a disastrous fumble last week when he made a big speech and then essentially said very little (other than repeating the ill-judged idea that he could somehow cling on to power until September), and ultimately failed to inspire confidence from the protestors in the street or those in the military who truly held the power behind his throne. A true revolution, sparked following the self-imolation of a young man who had lost any hope for the pursuit of his own happiness, saw the end of Mubarak's 30 year rule in an uprising after only 18 days (and one day after he'd announced earlier he would stay on until September).

Mubarak had long held himself as a war hero, particularly from his military exploits against Israel in the 70s, though he is also noted for having ensured modern peace between Egypt and Israel as well as holding a powerbase that had ensured some stability in the region. However, his long financial support from the Americans ensured that the USA was wrong-footed when it came to an uprising demanding an end to autocracy and for a new democratic future in Egypt. Obama's administration visibly stumbled in the early days of the uprising making vague statements about ensuring a smooth transition but unwilling to completely drop the man that they had long supported. The old notion of "he's a bastard, but he's our bastard" once seemed to be the overriding position, but this is now being replaced with encouraging noises about freedom and democracy.

For a long period, I had assumed that Mubarak would hold onto power using any number of ruthless tricks and so the announcement of his resignation on Friday was one that was met with a mixture of relief, surprise and unbelief; could he really be going? The Egyptian Military has largely played its cards right in this affair with many younger soldiers actively supporting the uprising, and the annoucement today of broad consultation on a new constitution and free elections in six months has been reassuring.

However, the future of the new Egypt rests with both the military and the protestors. While we have seen essentially a military coup the initial appearance is that of a holding period before a more representative government is formed. The protestors themselves form a wide base of the local demographics, crossing age and religious groupings; one of the moving images from last Sunday was when the Christian minority held a mass in Tahrir square (now the centre of this revolution) and were protected by the other protestors including both Muslim and Secular supporters.

One of the most powerful groups within the protestors is the Muslim Brotherhood, a group with a long complicated and controversial history that had been banned under Mubarak's regime. An Islamist group with political goals and methods, they have declared that they would not stand a presidential candidate in the elections announced for later this year, but for many in other parts of the region there is a fear of another 1979 Iranian revolution. They will be an important element for the future of Egypt, but they must also be keenly aware that the military will be watching to intervene if their interests are undermined.

In terms of this year's revolutions, Egypt may not be where it all began but it will have an important impact on the future of the region.

Rogue Diplomat reviews "We Are What We Are"

2010-12-02T23:32:00Z

Our regular film reviewer, Kate McCarthy of the Irish Film Institute in Dublin reviews the controversial Mexican Film "We are what we are" (Somos lo que hay).

At the beginning of Jorge Michel Grau’s horror film a man stumbles through a modern, sterile-looking shopping mall, stopping momentarily to dwell obsessively on his reflection in a window. Eventually falling to his knees, he perishes after a fit of bloody retching, and his body, and spilled fluids, are almost immediately removed by a mysterious cleaning crew. The promise of such an intriguing opening sequence is, however, never met during the remainder of Grau’s underwritten story.

The UK trailer for "We Are What We Are"

It emerges very soon after this man’s death that his family - a mother and three teenage children - have been left to fend for themselves, a task made more complicated than usual by the fact that they are cannibals. Their diet had been sustained by a string of prostitutes and homeless children, provided by the patriarch, and murdered and eaten in a domestic ritual. What ensues is really a drama of family politics, with a mother, bruised by her husband’s fondness for prostitutes, reluctant to hand over responsibility to her emotionally-unstable teenage sons, Alfredo and Julian.

In the middle is the teenage daughter Sabina, who pushes Alfredo to take over his father’s role, while appearing to be involved in an incestuous relationship with her other brother. In a sub-plot, two bumbling detectives engage in a hunt for the family after an autopsy of their father reveals a number of human body parts. However like other vague aspects of the story (including Alfredo’s suggested homosexuality) many questions are left unanswered, in a way that goes beyond an acceptable level of ambiguity.

We Are What We Are has been called a metaphorical interpretation of contemporary Mexican society, a depiction of how a leaderless people have been left to devour each other. It is difficult to say just how successfully this concept is carried by the film, although there is certainly a strong visual emphasis on reflections, from the opening sequence to Alfredo’s miserable contemplation of his own image in a subway window, through to Sabina’s solitary gaze into the bathroom mirror. And the level of societal violence is certainly just as affecting as that of the cannibal-related killings. At one point Alfredo batters a bus driver’s head against his wheel just so he will stop the bus. And given the shocking number of violent crimes that have occurred in recent months in Mexico, the most compelling images of the film, for me, involve the mother’s encounter with a group of vengeful prostitutes.

To leave aside the metaphorical context, however, it can really be said that the film is a disappointing addition to what has been a highly successful genre of Mexican Cinema, most recently through the work of Guillermo del Toro. His 1993 offering, Cronos, and 2001 feature, The Devil’s Backbone, would be a much better place to start for those interested in exploring Mexican horror films. Despite high production values and solid acting, We Are What We Are is simply far too entangled in its own web of under-developed plot threads to truly satisfy.

Change Your Times for the Better

2010-11-01T22:22:00Z

“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided."
Joanne Kathleen Rowling’s Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2000).

It is not often that one has the chance to experience all the joys of human goodness, cultural unity, musical thrill and political hope all within a couple of hours. Yet that was my most fortunate experience last Saturday night, when I sung in the autumn concert of Carshalton Choral Society, where we performed Karl Jenkins’ utterly brilliant The Armed Man: A Mass for Peace.

If anyone hasn’t heard this piece, I advise you to do so as soon as possible, for many reasons (perhaps the most dramatic and brilliant movement, ‘Charge’, can be found below, for a taster). It deals with the descent into and the terrible consequences of war, and uses texts and music from around the world and different religions to build bridges and show how the horrors of conflict affect all.

The work was performed in St Andrew’s United Reformed Church, and surely never before has the grand old venue seen such diversity and unity. Not only was the choir composed of those of many denominations and none, but the piece includes a Muslim call to prayer - quite beautifully rendered by the delightful young imam Mustafa Raj, whose humble delight and honour at being invited to play his part was a joy to behold - and what a joy it was to hear it.

God famously works in mysterious ways, and it can be no coincidence the piece was released just a single day before 9/11; a plea for peace which, especially in these traumatic times, we must fight ever harder to achieve. I don’t think I need to tell you, intelligent readers that you are, how important unity between all right-thinking men and women across the nations and cultures is, and I’m sure we all talk and genuinely think of its importance, especially at these oh-so-difficult times of suspicion and fear around the world, further fuelled by the latest frightening developments.

The difference, however, is that this piece actually does something, walks the walk (well, sings the songs); it genuinely brought cultures together to listen and learn, to mix and enjoy each other’s company, to debunk the suspicions and the myths. As the old saying goes, one person cannot change the world; but he or she can change his/her own life, and maybe thus his/her street, and then the local concert venue, and so on …

It’s often said, and again correctly, that it is a vocal minority that causes inter-culture tensions, with their poisonous words and deeds; deeds and words that all the decent majority on both sides deplore. But it is often forgotten - and we are all guilty - that those amongst this right-thinking majority, from both sides, sometimes lack the courage or force of mind to speak out enough against such horrors, to decry them and the falsity of their connection to the cultures they claim to represent, and perform the actions that disprove the myths; in short, to fight fire with love and understanding. I was so proud to have been part of this demonstration of unity that did just that, and I urge you all to try something similar and love your neighbours, that in our own small ways, we may bring this world a step closer to peace.

adrian@roguediplomat.com

There’s Good Economic News? Really?

2010-10-26T21:37:25Z

"Money money, must be funny …"

ABBA, Money Money Money, 1976

Well, just maybe, if today’s figures about the UK economy, which shows that it grew at 0.8% between July and September, are to be believed to be true progress and not just a false dawn. Rating agency Standard and Poor seems to believe the good news, as it has upgraded its outlook for the UK's triple-A credit rating, but it is probably a little early for Chancellor George Osborne to triumphantly claim the Coalition’s economic policies have been verified. (That said, it was even cheekier of Labour’s Alan Johnson to claim the rise was because ‘momentum remains from Labour's support for the economy.’ Nice try, but we all remember how the support eventually turned into a note saying, "good luck; there’s no money," Alan.)

Away from the usual posturing and squabbling in our ‘Beloved Cradle of DemocracyTM’, the truth is any sign of recovery in a struggling economy cannot be anything other than welcomed. But it doesn’t verify anything just yet: the axe of the Comprehensive Spending Review’s cuts was yet to fall during the time these figures were gathered, and we don’t know yet what effects they will have now they have been announced. The real test will come over the next two or three quarters, as the cuts bite and the public sector jobs disappear, and we see whether private sector enterprises have the courage and wherewithal to follow David Cameron’s call to create growth.

One thing for sure, though, is that this will give the Coalition a boast, as government success in the populace’s mind is invariably centred on fiscal policy - as Bill Clinton famously quipped, "it’s the economy, stupid"- and as a stable democratic government is never anything but a plus, this is good news. (What decisiveness. And in a new feature for Rogue Diplomat, if you agree with me - or more likely don‘t - tell me so equally decisively via email, at adrian@roguediplomat.com.)

Back to the Future

2010-10-25T10:58:48Z

‘You have to know where you came from to know where you are going.’

- Steve Waugh, former Australian cricket captain.

This is a year of 25th anniversaries: of the release of the titular film, of Live Aid, and of the birth of my friend Will Abraham (possibly of less global significance, this last). There are two more significant anniversaries, also, which are directly connected: 20 years of a re-united Germany, and 25 years since Russia’s (and one of Europe’s) greatest leaders was elected: Mikhail Gorbachev, the man whom without it is likely the Cold War would probably still be going on to this day.

Without glasnost and perestroika, where would we be? Russian control over the Eastern side of the Iron Curtain was so complete, pre-1985, that if a protestor sneezed in, say, Warsaw at noon, by 6pm Poland would have triple (or ‘tank’) pneumonia. Such power and influence made uprising against oppression virtually impossible to bring off successfully, as tragic tales of brutally crushed uprisings all around the region showed. Only once change came at the very top, allowing autonomy to the Warsaw Pact countries, could freedom be successfully managed. The subsequent speed of change and relative bloodlessness said it all, for once Gorbi had unlocked the door, the hordes charged through, and blessed him; as did the world, with the Nobel Peace Prize of 1990 a fitting testimony.

Dear Gorbi himself is still trying to work his influence for good in a Russia that has progressed far but still has a little way to go to create full and frank democracy. He is the part owner of Novaya Gazeta newspaper, a publication that has often run tough articles about Vladimir Putin‘s regime and campaigns for fully democratic processes, especially following last year‘s election, which suffered allegations of corruption. Long may the great man, and his followers, keep up the good fight.

But why do I say Back to the Future? Well this time should not be one just of celebration of one of the world’s great statesman, but also of a hope and remembrance of what might be achieved with the other fish that there are currently to fry.

The bloc that, for the sake of its people and the world, most needs addressing now is that in the Middle East ruled by the fundamentalist Islamist powers of Iran and Saudi Arabia. In Iran in particular, an endemically flawed and oppressive pervading form of governance, just like that of the USSR, espouses some extreme values, to the harm of its people and others. Crucially, these faults are both repeated and demanded across the region, amongst smaller nations that are afraid of their large and powerful neighbours: as my friend Edward Alexander eloquently argued, “Under that crazy second-hand-besuited madman Ahmadinejad, Iran has established itself as a spider at the centre of a very sinister web. Look at where it is on the map, and which countries it's next to; is it too far-fetched to believe that it could have been a hand that rocked the cradle in some of the more volatile regions?” It is no coincidence that, in contrast, Muslim-majority Malaysia, well away from this sphere of damaging influence, is renowned for its liberality and has no terrorist links.

All this is not only a tale of suffering for the people under such regimes, but can paint an incorrect and damaging picture of a noble and ancient area, and its true and worthy religious values (contrary to fundamental reports, jihad is specifically forbidden by the Qur’an), that should hold a valued place in the world’s diverse cultural picture.

In this piece, at the start of the year, I hoped that 2010 would be the year the green light shone for Iran’s green revolution. It hasn’t happened yet, but there is still time; and if not this year, perhaps the next or the year after. Let us keep aware, let us keep up support, and let us hope for the next Mikhail.

Merkel: Multiculturalism has "utterly failed"

2010-10-17T21:19:48Z

German Chancellor came under fire today for declaring that multi-culturalism had utterly failed in Germany, calling upon immigrants to learn German and to do more to integrate into wider German society, such as learning German. Her comments have met something of a national mood as well as a broader European concern over immigration from the middle east and Africa particularly.

Germany's "guest workers" first came in the 1960s when Turks and others were invited to work in the FDR to meet manpower shortages in what was West Germany. However, given Germany's then-strict jus sanguinis rules governing German citizenship, many of these immigrants had no direct route to German citizenship and as such grew apart from much of the rest of German society.

It is therefore a little disingenuous to say that multi-culturalism has failed in Germany, in that sense, because the parameters set for it were too narrow. This does not ignore genuine held concerns over immigration in many parts of the EU and in Germany in particular. And anti-multiculturalism should not be seen simply as "racism", but rather as a concern over how different cultures can work together particularly in tough times. There are now 16 million foreign works in Germany with some popular sentiment being that many are only in the country so as to exploit the generous welfare state (an argument expressed in many different parts of the EU to foreigners). Indeed the increasing of EU membership has made the case even more difficult given that under the terms of free movement within the schengen region gives people from most parts of the EU the freedom to live and work elsewhere within the Union irrespective of how well they can fit in to an existing culture.

Angela Merkel does of course face elections in the spring, so these comments are undoubtedly for her political powerbase who have expressed such fears over immigration. There is an old truism that in difficult times, foreigners are the easiest to blame. Germany is still dealing socially and economically with the re-integration of East and West German and has also been touched by the ongoing financial crisis afflicting the European Union as a whole. In these extreme circumstances it is easy to look to those outsiders, those with different customs such as styles of dress and see them as adversaries for increasingly scarce resources, but those are arguments that need to be properly addressed.

As is so often the case, immigrants are often those most willing to undertake the difficult or unpleasant work that unemployment resident citizens would turn away (and often in terms of jobs where they would be far away from local citizens). The guestworker programme also made it easy for a government, rightly or wrongly, to recruit large numbers of workers from abroad during the good economic times only to be able to deport them when times turned for the worse. In that situation, it is understandable why one would cling to older traditions and values because you knew you could not rely on the state in which you were a 'guest' to support you in those difficult periods.

So, are there any answers? I think "multiculturalism" is something of a boogeyman in modern parlance; culture is always something in flux, even within countries or cities, and the notion of multiculturalism is in itself subjective. The key, I believe, lies in giving people a stake in the country they are resident within as well as responsibilities to work within existing structures.

Hope in the darkness - the heartbeat of the Chilean mine rescue

2010-10-13T17:53:23Z

There are few times in history when news is so unashamedly wonderful, when the spirit of hope triumphs over both divisions and danger. Such times are these as of the rescue of the miners who had been trapped since August 5th (at the time of writing 18 out of the 33 have been rescued) at the mine in Copaipo, and who had once seemed to be absolutely doomed are now reaching out in to the light of day.

Footage from CNN highlighting the rescue

While there are questions that need to be answered, such as Chile's poor record of mining accidents, and there are those who will use it for political gain, it is important to look to the inspiration and hope that kept the miners and their families going during tough times. During these challenging times for the world, such stories are important; to see men endure disaster and triumph when all hope once seemed lost and to endure a event that could have broken many. These are the tales that grip the imagination and stir the soul - while at times I may be cynical, I hope you will permit me the enjoyment of a moment of joy felt around the world.

To those of the miners who are still underground, all I can say is a simple Godspeed and good luck, for the world is waiting for you.

Reflections on Delhi's Commonwealth Games

2010-10-11T21:31:25Z

Regular Rogue Diplomat writer and Dehli-resident Vineet Thakur tackles the international reaction to the current Commonwealth Games. Vineet is enrolled on the PhD (International Relations) program at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Reflections on Delhi’s CWG

What ‘Common’, whose ‘Wealth’, and who cares about ‘Games’ anyway? Reflecting on the ongoing Commonwealth Games in New Delhi these question jostle up in my mind immediately. Seventy one countries – not technically so considering Wales, Scotland and England participate separately [that’s another story entirely… Ed] – all brought together by the unchained melody of British colonialism. It still baffles many, why the Commonwealth stands as an ode to Colonialism exemplified in the Queen’s prerogative as the head of the organization. Why can it not be a celebration of the indigenous struggles for their own sovereignty in these various countries? Anyway, back to the Games.

To say that the opening ceremony of the games was a success would be to hide the point. It was a success when everyone was waiting for it to fail. The knives, in the international (or should I say Western, and I go by my mental ‘colonized’ maps rather than cartographic specifications by including Australia and New Zealand) media were already out. And when they did not find enough flesh to dig them in, they still made their point. In a more considerate article, Guardian reported: “After all the shameful tales of dengue fever and squalid bedrooms, Delhi finally got its chance on Sunday to show the world (or at least the Commonwealth) that India can organize things properly. And it did not disappoint.”

Indians are livid for obvious reasons. “Did not disappoint” is all you get after a 700 million rupees extravaganza that knitted together their country’s cultural diversity and displayed a blend of both India’s long history of civilization and modern reformation! And guys, we had ‘yoga’ in there too; precisely what you have always loved about India.

Or they ask – ‘Did not disappoint’, oh - what did you expect? Did you think we would have ‘Mogli’ shooting out of Rudyard Kipling’s ‘Jungle Book’ especially after threats of dengue? Did you expect a country of ‘snakes and charmers’ on display? We did that as well - snake-charmers were there right in the beginning if you noticed. Frankly (wink!!), even we are surprised at our ability to ‘organize things properly’, we pulled it off (hurray!!)